2026 midterm forecast

Every Senate, governor and House race

Foresight's forecast for the November 3, 2026 midterms: 121 races in all 50 states, from control of Congress to each state's House delegation.

Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Method · How it compares with Silver Bulletin

Hover a state for its forecast, click it for the full post.

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe RNo raceProjected flip

Senate

Democratic control

74%

Republicans 22% · independents decide 3%

Expected seats: 51.9 D · 47.6 R · 0.5 I

House

Democratic control

93%

Republicans 7%

Expected seats: 241 D · 193 R

National House vote: D+7.0

Governors

After the election

27 D · 21 R

2 toss-ups, where neither side has a 60% chance

Governorships, including governors not up this year.

Key insights

Senate

Democrats lead in five Senate seats Republicans hold

Democrats are ahead in five Republican-held races, enough to reach the 51 seats they need for control. North Carolina, where Cooper leads by 12.9 points, is the safest of those pickups. Maine, the Ohio special election, Texas and Alaska are closer.

Three more Republican seats are tight. Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.7 points in Nebraska, Marshall is up 0.8 in Kansas, and Hinson leads by 1.6 in Iowa.

House

Democrats are favored to win the House comfortably

Democrats lead the national House vote by 7.0 points. That puts them ahead in 33 seats Republicans hold, against 13 Democratic seats where Republicans lead, which would leave them well past the 218 needed for a majority.

Some seats are coin flips. The closest is South Carolina's 2nd District, where Wilson, the Republican, leads by 0.2 points.

Governors

Democrats lead in five governorships Republicans hold

Democrats are favored to hold 27 governorships after the election and Republicans 21, counting governors not on the ballot, with two races too close to call. Democrats lead in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada, all held by Republicans today. Republicans lead in Kansas, where the Democratic governor is leaving office.

Nevada and Kansas are the toss-ups. Ford leads by 0.8 points in Nevada and Masterson by 1.1 in Kansas, and neither has a 60% chance to win.

Forecasts by state

Pick a state for its races, or a race for the full forecast.

How our forecast compares with Silver Bulletin's