2026 midterm forecast
Every Senate, governor and House race
Foresight's forecast for the November 3, 2026 midterms: 121 races in all 50 states, from control of Congress to each state's House delegation.
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Method · How it compares with Silver Bulletin
Hover a state for its forecast, click it for the full post.Tap a state for its full forecast.
Senate
Democratic control
74%
Republicans 22% · independents decide 3%
Expected seats: 51.9 D · 47.6 R · 0.5 I
House
Democratic control
93%
Republicans 7%
Expected seats: 241 D · 193 R
National House vote: D+7.0
Governors
After the election
27 D · 21 R
2 toss-ups, where neither side has a 60% chance
Governorships, including governors not up this year.
Key insights
Senate
Democrats lead in five Senate seats Republicans hold
Democrats are ahead in five Republican-held races, enough to reach the 51 seats they need for control. North Carolina, where Cooper leads by 12.9 points, is the safest of those pickups. Maine, the Ohio special election, Texas and Alaska are closer.
Three more Republican seats are tight. Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.7 points in Nebraska, Marshall is up 0.8 in Kansas, and Hinson leads by 1.6 in Iowa.
House
Democrats are favored to win the House comfortably
Democrats lead the national House vote by 7.0 points. That puts them ahead in 33 seats Republicans hold, against 13 Democratic seats where Republicans lead, which would leave them well past the 218 needed for a majority.
Some seats are coin flips. The closest is South Carolina's 2nd District, where Wilson, the Republican, leads by 0.2 points.
Governors
Democrats lead in five governorships Republicans hold
Democrats are favored to hold 27 governorships after the election and Republicans 21, counting governors not on the ballot, with two races too close to call. Democrats lead in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada, all held by Republicans today. Republicans lead in Kansas, where the Democratic governor is leaving office.
Nevada and Kansas are the toss-ups. Ford leads by 0.8 points in Nevada and Masterson by 1.1 in Kansas, and neither has a 60% chance to win.
Forecasts by state
Pick a state for its races, or a race for the full forecast.