2026 midterm forecast
Minnesota House
All 8 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
4 D · 4 R
of 8
Seats today
4 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
D+10.1
95% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 12% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Minnesota's evenly split House delegation is unlikely to change
Democrats and Republicans each hold four of Minnesota's eight House seats, and the even split is expected to last. The three closest races all lean Republican, led by MN-01 at 7.4 points.
Democrats lead by 34.2 points among college graduates and trail by 6.3 among voters without a degree. Women back Democrats by 21.3 points, while men are almost evenly divided.
The race
Minnesota elects 8 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 | Jake Johnson (D) vs. Brad Finstad (R) | R | R+7.4 | 81% R | Likely R |
| MN-02 | Matt Little (D) vs. Eric Pratt (R) | D | D+13.5 | 95% D | Likely D |
| MN-03 | Kelly Morrison (D) vs. Tyler Bass (R) | D | D+27.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MN-04 | Betty McCollum (D) vs. Paul Wikstrom (R) | D | D+39.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MN-05 | Ilhan Omar (D) vs. John Nagel (R) | D | D+68.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MN-06 | Doug Chapin (D) vs. Tom Emmer (R) | R | R+11.7 | 92% R | Likely R |
| MN-07 | Erik Osberg (D) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R) | R | R+32.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MN-08 | Trina Swanson (D) vs. Pete Stauber (R) | R | R+10.2 | 89% R | Likely R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.