2026 midterm forecast
Minnesota governor
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Lisa Demuth (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
98%
Amy Klobuchar
Projected margin
D+10.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
9%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Klobuchar looks likely to keep Minnesota's governorship Democratic
Klobuchar, a Democrat, has a comfortable lead in the race for the office Walz is vacating. Republican Demuth would need a sizable shift to catch up.
Klobuchar's support falls off with age. She leads by 29.1 points among voters under 30 and by 27 among those 30 to 44, but Demuth edges ahead with voters 65 and older, by 3.6.
The race
- Democrat
- Amy Klobuchar (D)
- Republican
- Lisa Demuth (R)
- Seat held by
- Tim Walz (D), not running
DFL U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, who defeated Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell in the primary, are competing for the open seat, and both have pledged not to raise taxes. Klobuchar wants to lower health care costs and build housing, and she ties Demuth to Trump. Demuth, who is running on cracking down on fraud, links Klobuchar to Gov. Tim Walz.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.KlobucharDemuth
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.