2026 midterm forecast
Minnesota
Three races on Minnesota's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 8 House seats.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R)
Chance to win
91%
Flanagan
Projected margin
D+7.6
Flanagan is favored to hold Smith's Minnesota seat for Democrats
Read the forecastMinnesota governor
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Lisa Demuth (R)
Chance to win
98%
Klobuchar
Projected margin
D+10.8
Klobuchar looks likely to keep Minnesota's governorship Democratic
Read the forecastMinnesota House
All 8 House seats
Expected seats
4 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
D+10.1
Minnesota's evenly split House delegation is unlikely to change
Read the forecast