2026 midterm forecast
Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
91%
Peggy Flanagan
Projected margin
D+7.6
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
12%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Flanagan is favored to hold Smith's Minnesota seat for Democrats
The seat is open because Smith is not running again. Flanagan leads for Democrats, but Republican Tafoya is not far enough behind to count out.
Flanagan's lead is built in urban areas, where she is ahead by 44.9 points, and among college graduates, at 34.7. Tafoya carries rural voters by 7.4 points and voters without a degree by 6.3.
The race
- Democrat
- Peggy Flanagan (D)
- Republican
- Michele Tafoya (R)
- Seat held by
- Tina Smith (D), not running
Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster and commentator, won her primary for the open seat and was endorsed by President Trump in October. DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who defeated U.S. Rep. Angie Craig in the Aug. 11 primary, wants to fight corporate influence and opposes tariffs, and she calls Tafoya a rubber stamp for Trump. Tafoya calls herself an independent thinker and faults Flanagan over fraud in state programs.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.FlanaganTafoya
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.