2026 midterm forecast
Iowa governor
Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
85%
Rob Sand
Projected margin
D+5.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Iowa could elect a Democratic governor, with Sand ahead of Lahn
Republicans hold Iowa's governorship, but with Gov. Kim Reynolds not running, Sand is favored to take it for Democrats. Lahn is close enough to keep the race competitive.
Lahn's support is strongest in rural Iowa, which he carries by 10.3 points, and among voters without a degree, by 8.6. Sand counters with a 31.2-point lead among college graduates and a 27.2-point edge in cities.
The race
- Democrat
- Rob Sand (D)
- Republican
- Zach Lahn (R)
- Seat held by
- Kim Reynolds (R), not running
With Gov. Kim Reynolds not running, the seat is open. Democrat Rob Sand, the two-term state auditor and the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, ran unopposed in the June primary and talks about a bipartisan approach, his rural upbringing, water quality and wetlands restoration. Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman endorsed by President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Gov. Reynolds and MAHA Action, won the June primary in an upset over U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra and focuses on cancer rates, family farms and eventually ending property taxes on primary homes. Sand and Lahn have debated three times.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.SandLahn
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.