2026 midterm forecast
Iowa Senate
Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
61%
Ashley Hinson
Projected margin
R+1.6
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
17%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hinson holds a slim edge for Iowa's open Senate seat
Sen. Joni Ernst is not running, leaving Republicans to defend an open seat in a close race. Hinson is slightly ahead and would keep it Republican, but Turek is within striking distance.
Voters 45 to 64 are almost evenly divided, with Hinson up by 0.5 points. Turek's best groups are college graduates and urban voters, who favor him by 23.8 and 23.5 points, while Hinson leads rural voters by 17.8.
The race
- Democrat
- Josh Turek (D)
- Republican
- Ashley Hinson (R)
- Seat held by
- Joni Ernst (R), not running
Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement leaves the seat open. Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV news anchor endorsed by Trump, calls for border security and temporary gas-tax relief and opposes Social Security cuts. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, wants to end the Iran war and suspend gas taxes and points to his bipartisan record. They debated Oct. 7 and Oct. 13.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.TurekHinson
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.