2026 midterm forecast
Iowa House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
1 D · 3 R
of 4
Seats today
0 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
R+5.0
78% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 19% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
IA-03 is the one Iowa House seat Democrats are favored to flip
Iowa's House delegation is all Republican today, and IA-03 is where that could change, with Democrats ahead by 6.1 points. That would leave Republicans with three of the four seats. Two other Republican seats are even closer, with the party ahead by 3.7 points in IA-01 and 4.2 in IA-02.
Education and geography split the state sharply. Democrats lead college graduates by 23.4 points and urban voters by 23.1, while Republicans carry voters without a degree by 16.6 and rural voters by 20.7.
The race
Iowa elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 4 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | R | R+3.7 | 67% R | Lean R |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) | R | R+4.2 | 69% R | Lean R |
| IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs. Zach Nunn (R) | R | D+6.1 | 77% D | Lean DFlip |
| IA-04 | Dave Dawson (D) vs. Chris McGowan (R) | R | R+21.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.