2026 midterm forecast

Iowa

Three races on Iowa's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 4 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Iowa Senate

Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)

Chance to win

61%

Hinson

Projected margin

R+1.6

Hinson holds a slim edge for Iowa's open Senate seat

Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R)

Chance to win

85%

Sand

Projected margin

D+5.8

Iowa could elect a Democratic governor, with Sand ahead of Lahn

All 4 House seats

Expected seats

1 D · 3 R

Statewide House vote

R+5.0

IA-03 is the one Iowa House seat Democrats are favored to flip