2026 midterm forecast
Idaho governor
Terri Pickens (D) vs. Brad Little (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Brad Little
Projected margin
R+28.5
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
12%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Brad Little is on course for another term as Idaho governor
Little, Idaho's Republican governor, is seeking another term, and Democrat Pickens trails him by a wide margin. Stegner, an independent, is also in the race.
Rural Idaho gives Little his widest margin, 54 points, and he wins even urban voters by 11. The 2024 vote carries over almost completely, with 97% of Trump voters behind him and 99% of Harris voters behind Pickens.
The race
- Democrat
- Terri Pickens (D)
- Republican
- Brad Little (R)
- Also on the ballot
- John Stegner (I)
- Seat held by
- Brad Little (R), running
Republican Gov. Brad Little, endorsed by Trump, is running for a third term on tax cuts and education and workforce funding. Democrat Terri Pickens, a trial lawyer, promises to reverse 2025 tax cuts to restore Medicaid and school funding. Independent John Stegner, a retired state Supreme Court justice, has pledged to challenge the private-school tax credit in court.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.PickensLittle
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.