2026 midterm forecast
Idaho House
All 2 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
0 D · 2 R
of 2
Seats today
0 D · 2 R
Statewide House vote
R+32.2
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 18% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Idaho's two House seats should stay Republican
Republicans hold both of Idaho's House seats and are expected to keep them. The closer of the two, ID-02, still leans their way by 22.2 points, and ID-01 is more lopsided at 42 points.
Education is the sharpest divide. Republicans win voters without a degree by 47.4 points but lead college graduates by only 3.1. Rural voters favor them by 54.8 points.
The race
Idaho elects 2 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID-01 | Kaylee Peterson (D) vs. Russ Fulcher (R) | R | R+42.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| ID-02 | Elinor Gilbreath (D) vs. Michael K. Simpson (R) | R | R+22.2 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.