2026 midterm forecast
Idaho Senate
Todd Achilles (I) vs. Jim Risch (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Jim Risch
Projected margin
R+23.9
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Independent Achilles faces a steep climb against Risch in Idaho
Risch is defending his seat against Achilles, an independent, and the Republican is ahead in nearly every group. Achilles has a long way to go to make the race competitive.
Achilles does carry college graduates, by 5.8 points. Risch more than makes up for it among voters without a degree, who back him by 34.9 points, and in rural areas, where he leads by 45.
The race
- Independent
- Todd Achilles (I)
- Republican
- Jim Risch (R)
- Seat held by
- Jim Risch (R), running
- Note
- No Democrat on the ballot; independent Achilles is Dem-aligned
Republican Sen. Jim Risch, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has Trump's endorsement in his bid for a fourth term and talks about his conservative record and cutting federal waste. Independent Todd Achilles, an Army veteran and former Democratic state representative, backs term limits and a congressional stock-trading ban and has made the national debt an issue. No Democrat is on the ballot after nominee David Roth withdrew.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.AchillesRisch
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.