2026 midterm forecast
Louisiana House
All 6 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
1 D · 5 R
of 6
Seats today
2 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
R+12.2
97% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 23% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans are favored to flip LA-06 under Louisiana's new map
Louisiana has a new House map for 2026, and Republicans are expected to win five of its six seats, up from four today. The gain comes in LA-06, which Democrats hold now but where Republicans lead by 17.6 points.
Urban voters favor Democrats by 33.9 points, but the suburbs and rural areas both lean Republican, the rural vote by 24.5. Republicans lead men by 17 points, a far wider edge than they have with women.
The race
Louisiana elects 6 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats and 4 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | Lauren Jewett (D) vs. Steve Scalise (R) | R | R+31.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| LA-02 | Troy Carter (D) vs. Peter Williams (R) | D | D+56.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| LA-03 | John Day (D) vs. Clay Higgins (R) | R | R+29.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| LA-04 | Conrad Cable (D) vs. Mike Johnson (R) | R | R+25.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| LA-05 | Dan McKay (D) vs. Michael Echols (R) | R | R+23.2 | >99% R | Safe R |
| LA-06 | Lindsay Garcia (D) vs. Blake Miguez (R) | D | R+17.6 | 98% R | Safe RFlip |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.