2026 midterm forecast
Louisiana Senate
Jamie Davis (D) vs. Julia Letlow (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
85%
Julia Letlow
Projected margin
R+7.0
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
21%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Cassidy's open Louisiana Senate seat leans toward Letlow
Letlow is favored to keep Cassidy's seat in Republican hands now that he is not running. Her lead over Democrat Davis is solid, though not insurmountable.
Davis carries college graduates by 20 points, a lead Letlow answers among voters without a degree, who back her by 14.8. Only 82% of 2024 Trump voters support Letlow, while 95% of Harris voters stick with Davis.
The race
- Democrat
- Jamie Davis (D)
- Republican
- Julia Letlow (R)
- Seat held by
- Bill Cassidy (R), not running
- Note
- Cassidy lost the new closed primary; plurality general
The seat is open after Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy lost the May GOP primary. Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, a Tensas Parish farmer and former police juror, won their parties' June 27 runoffs. Letlow, endorsed by President Trump, points to her appropriations record and focuses on flood insurance costs, workforce training and parental rights in education. Davis talks about electricity, insurance and health care costs and wants a ban on nondisclosure agreements for public officials.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DavisLetlow
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.