2026 midterm forecast
Nebraska House
All 3 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
2 D · 1 R
of 3
Seats today
0 D · 3 R
Statewide House vote
R+2.5
65% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 20% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Nebraska Republicans could lose two of their three House seats
Nebraska's three House seats all belong to Republicans today, but Democrats are expected to win two of them. NE-02 looks like a comfortable pickup, with Democrats ahead by 24.4 points. NE-01 is much closer, with a 3.7-point Democratic lead, and Republicans keep NE-03 by 37.1.
Nebraska splits hard by geography. Rural voters favor Republicans by 44.3 points, and urban voters favor Democrats by 40.1. Age divides it too, from a 39.2-point Democratic lead among voters 18–29 to an 18.0-point Republican edge among those 65 and older.
The race
Nebraska elects 3 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 3 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-01 | Christopher Backemeyer (D) vs. Mike Flood (R) | R | D+3.7 | 68% D | Lean DFlip |
| NE-02 | Denise Powell (D) vs. Brinker Harding (R) | R | D+24.4 | >99% D | Safe DFlip |
| NE-03 | Becky Lynn Stille (D) vs. Adrian Smith (R) | R | R+37.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.