2026 midterm forecast
Nebraska Senate
Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
55%
Pete Ricketts
Projected margin
R+0.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
6%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Osborn and Ricketts are locked in a dead heat in Nebraska
Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, holds the thinnest of edges over Osborn, an independent. A loss for Ricketts would cost Republicans the seat.
Crossover voting shapes the race. Osborn draws 38% of 2024 Trump voters to Ricketts's 58%, and he wins 76% of people who did not vote in 2024, with 22% of that group still undecided. His edge is thinnest among voters 65 and older, at 6.7 points, and in rural areas, at 0.4.
The race
- Independent
- Dan Osborn (I)
- Republican
- Pete Ricketts (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Chuck Conboy (America First), Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party)
- Seat held by
- Pete Ricketts (R), running
- Note
- No Democrat on the ballot; Osborn won't caucus with either party
Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, a former union local president who has the backing of Nebraska Democrats, whose own nominee withdrew. Ricketts is running on the 2025 federal tax cuts, border security and law enforcement. Osborn's message is about living costs, tariffs, a congressional stock-trading ban and independence from both parties.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.OsbornRicketts
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.