2026 midterm forecast
Nebraska governor
Lynne Walz (D) vs. Jim Pillen (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
66%
Jim Pillen
Projected margin
R+2.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
11%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Nebraska's governor race is close, with Pillen slightly ahead
Pillen, the Republican incumbent, is running for another term and holds a slim lead over Walz, a Democrat. The race is close enough that either could win.
Pillen has a looser hold on Trump voters than Walz has on Harris voters. Only 73% of 2024 Trump voters back him, compared with 99% of Harris voters for Walz, who also draws 59% of those who did not vote in 2024. The map splits sharply, with Pillen up 34.3 points in rural areas and Walz up 46.5 in urban ones.
The race
- Democrat
- Lynne Walz (D)
- Republican
- Jim Pillen (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Brett Lindstrom (America First), Rick Beard (Legal Marijuana NOW)
- Seat held by
- Jim Pillen (R), running
Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is running for a second term against two former state senators, Democrat Lynne Walz and America First nominee Brett Lindstrom. Pillen is campaigning on property tax relief, agriculture and spending cuts. Walz talks about affordability, the budget shortfall and trust in government. Lindstrom has focused on property tax changes.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.WalzPillen
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.