2026 midterm forecast
Nevada governor
Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
56%
Aaron Ford
Projected margin
D+0.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
16%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Aaron Ford holds a sliver of a lead over Gov. Lombardo
Ford, a Democrat, holds a tiny lead over Lombardo, the Republican governor seeking reelection. A Ford win would flip the office to Democrats, though his edge could easily disappear.
Ford's support leans on college graduates, who back him by 29.4 points, and urban voters, at 18.0. Lombardo leads voters without a degree by 4.6 points and rural voters by 14.4, and the suburbs are close to a tie.
The race
- Democrat
- Aaron Ford (D)
- Republican
- Joe Lombardo (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Danielle Ford (No Political Party)
- Seat held by
- Joe Lombardo (R), running
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, is being challenged by Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford and nonpartisan Danielle Ford, a State Board of Education member. Lombardo is running on his no-new-taxes pledge, down-payment aid for homebuyers, school funding and stricter drug-trafficking penalties. Aaron Ford focuses on affordability and limits on corporate home buying, wants to raise school funding without new taxes and has criticized data center tax incentives. Danielle Ford's campaign is about education and ending two-party dominance.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.FordLombardo
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.