2026 midterm forecast
Nevada House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
3 D · 1 R
of 4
Seats today
3 D · 1 R
Statewide House vote
D+6.0
83% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 18% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
No Nevada House seat is projected to flip
Nevada's House delegation is expected to stay at three Democrats and one Republican. The closest district is NV-02, where Republicans lead by 7.2 points. Democrats are ahead by 8.5 in NV-03 and 11.5 in NV-01.
Suburban voters are nearly even, leaning Democratic by 1.0 point. The wider gaps come in urban areas, which favor Democrats by 21.6 points, and rural ones, which favor Republicans by 15.3. College graduates back Democrats by 30.9 points.
The race
Nevada elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-01 | Dina Titus (D) vs. Carrie Buck (R) | D | D+11.5 | 93% D | Likely D |
| NV-02 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs. David Flippo (R) | R | R+7.2 | 81% R | Likely R |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee (D) vs. Marty O'Donnell (R) | D | D+8.5 | 86% D | Likely D |
| NV-04 | Steven Horsford (D) vs. Cody Whipple (R) | D | D+12.2 | 94% D | Likely D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.