2026 midterm forecast
North Carolina House
All 14 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
8 D · 6 R
of 14
Seats today
4 D · 10 R
Statewide House vote
D+11.2
96% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats are favored to win most of North Carolina's House seats
North Carolina has a new congressional map for 2026, and Democrats are expected to win eight of its 14 seats, up from four today. They are favored to flip NC-03, NC-11 and NC-14 from Republicans. Several races are on a knife's edge, with Democrats up 0.8 points in NC-03 and 1.2 in NC-14, and Republicans ahead by 0.6 in NC-07.
The widest gap is geographic. Democrats carry urban voters by 48.2 points, and Republicans win rural areas by 8.3.
The race
North Carolina elects 14 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 4 Democrats and 10 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R) | D | D+3.3 | 65% D | Lean D |
| NC-02 | Deborah Ross (D) vs. Eugene Douglass (R) | D | D+48.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith (D) vs. Greg Murphy (R) | R | D+0.8 | 54% D | Toss-upFlip |
| NC-04 | Valerie Foushee (D) vs. Mahesh Ganorkar (R) | D | D+60.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard (D) vs. Virginia Foxx (R) | R | R+4.2 | 69% R | Lean R |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson (D) vs. Addison McDowell (R) | R | R+3.0 | 64% R | Lean R |
| NC-07 | Kimberly Hardy (D) vs. David Rouzer (R) | R | R+0.6 | 53% R | Toss-up |
| NC-08 | Colby Watson (D) vs. Mark Harris (R) | R | R+5.6 | 74% R | Lean R |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda (D) vs. Richard Hudson (R) | R | R+2.8 | 63% R | Lean R |
| NC-10 | Ashley Bell (D) vs. Pat Harrigan (R) | R | R+2.6 | 62% R | Lean R |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R) | R | D+4.0 | 68% D | Lean DFlip |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams (D) vs. Jack Codiga (R) | D | D+64.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer (D) vs. Brad Knott (R) | R | R+2.3 | 61% R | Lean R |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack (D) vs. Tim Moore (R) | R | D+1.2 | 55% D | Toss-upFlip |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.