2026 midterm forecast
North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
99%
Roy Cooper
Projected margin
D+12.9
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
North Carolina's open Senate seat looks likely to flip to Cooper
With Republican Sen. Tillis not running, Cooper, the Democrat, is the clear favorite over Whatley to replace him, which would move the seat from Republican to Democratic hands.
Whatley's only edge comes in rural areas, where he leads by 3.2 points. Cooper carries every other group, including men by 7.8 points and voters without a degree by 5.4. He also keeps 96% of 2024 Harris voters, while 77% of Trump voters back Whatley.
The race
- Democrat
- Roy Cooper (D)
- Republican
- Michael Whatley (R)
- Seat held by
- Thom Tillis (R), not running
Democrat Roy Cooper, a former two-term governor, faces Republican Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, for the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper has centered his campaign on affordability, including opposing tariffs and restoring health insurance subsidies, under the slogan "Make Stuff Cost Less." Whatley has stressed crime, including limits on pretrial release, and more recently lower taxes and energy production under the banner "Make More Keep More." The two have not debated.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.CooperWhatley
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.