2026 midterm forecast

Texas

Three races on Texas's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 38 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Texas Senate

James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)

Chance to win

67%

Talarico

Projected margin

D+2.5

Talarico could flip Texas' open Senate seat for Democrats

Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R)

Chance to win

77%

Abbott

Projected margin

R+4.2

Abbott has the edge in a competitive Texas governor's race

All 38 House seats

Expected seats

12 D · 26 R

Statewide House vote

R+3.5

Republicans are favored in four Democratic-held Texas districts