2026 midterm forecast
Texas governor
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
77%
Greg Abbott
Projected margin
R+4.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Abbott has the edge in a competitive Texas governor's race
Abbott, a Republican, is seeking another term as governor and holds a modest lead over Hinojosa, the Democrat. Dixon is also running as a Libertarian.
Abbott's strength is in rural areas, where he leads by 47.6 points. Hinojosa runs best with the youngest voters, winning those 18–29 by 31.9 points, and she also leads in cities and suburbs.
The race
- Democrat
- Gina Hinojosa (D)
- Republican
- Greg Abbott (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Pat Dixon (Libertarian)
- Seat held by
- Greg Abbott (R), running
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Abbott's focus is property tax cuts and border security. Hinojosa's campaign centers on public school funding, ending the state's school voucher program and $1,500 payments to families.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HinojosaAbbott
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.