2026 midterm forecast
Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
67%
James Talarico
Projected margin
D+2.5
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
19%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Talarico could flip Texas' open Senate seat for Democrats
Talarico, a Democrat, is narrowly ahead of Paxton, the Republican, in the race to replace Cornyn, who is not running. A Talarico win would hand Democrats a seat Republicans now hold. Brown, a Libertarian, is also in the race.
Paxton keeps 84% of 2024 Trump voters, a weaker hold than Talarico's 97% of Harris voters. Talarico also leads voters 18–29 by 34.2 points, while Paxton's best ground is rural Texas, which he wins by 37.6.
The race
- Democrat
- James Talarico (D)
- Republican
- Ken Paxton (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Ted Brown (Libertarian)
- Seat held by
- John Cornyn (R), not running
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May runoff, faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the open seat. Talarico has campaigned on affordability and political reform and has accused Paxton of corruption. Paxton cites his record suing tech and drug companies, has proposed tax deductions and casts Talarico as a liberal.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.TalaricoPaxton
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.