2026 midterm forecast
Texas House
All 38 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
12 D · 26 R
of 38
Seats today
13 D · 25 R
Statewide House vote
R+3.5
70% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans are favored in four Democratic-held Texas districts
On a redrawn Texas map, Republicans lead in four districts Democrats now hold, TX-09, TX-28, TX-32 and TX-35. Several races are within a point, so their expected gain on balance is one seat, to about 26 of the 38. TX-28 and TX-35 are the closest, with Republicans ahead by 0.4 points in each, followed by TX-34, where Democrats lead by 0.6.
Republicans run up a 45.8-point lead with rural voters. Democrats do best among voters 18–29, who back them by 30.8 points.
The race
Texas elects 38 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 13 Democrats and 25 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | Yolanda Prince (D) vs. Nathaniel Moran (R) | R | R+40.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TX-02 | Shaun Finnie (D) vs. Steve Toth (R) | R | R+12.9 | 93% R | Likely R |
| TX-03 | Evan Hunt (D) vs. Keith Self (R) | R | R+13.6 | 94% R | Likely R |
| TX-04 | Jason Pearce (D) vs. Pat Fallon (R) | R | R+15.3 | 96% R | Safe R |
| TX-05 | Chelsey Hockett (D) vs. Lance Gooden (R) | R | R+10.4 | 88% R | Likely R |
| TX-06 | Danny Minton (D) vs. Jake Ellzey (R) | R | R+10.8 | 89% R | Likely R |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) vs. Alexander Hale (R) | D | D+37.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-08 | Laura Jones (D) vs. Jessica Steinmann (R) | R | R+17.9 | 98% R | Safe R |
| TX-09 | Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs. Alex Mealer (R) | D | R+6.5 | 77% R | Lean RFlip |
| TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk (D) vs. Chris Gober (R) | R | R+13.9 | 94% R | Likely R |
| TX-11 | Claire Reynolds (D) vs. August Pfluger (R) | R | R+23.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TX-12 | Heli Rodriguez Prilliman (D) vs. Craig Goldman (R) | R | R+12.3 | 92% R | Likely R |
| TX-13 | Mark Nair (D) vs. Ronny L. Jackson (R) | R | R+37.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TX-14 | Thurman Bill Bartie (D) vs. Randy Weber (R) | R | R+15.5 | 96% R | Safe R |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | R | R+8.0 | 82% R | Likely R |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar (D) vs. Adam Bauman (R) | D | D+26.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-17 | Casey Shepard (D) vs. Pete Sessions (R) | R | R+13.3 | 93% R | Likely R |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee (D) vs. Ronald Whitfield (R) | D | D+68.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-19 | Kyle Rable (D) vs. Tom Sell (R) | R | R+41.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro (D) vs. Edgardo Baez (R) | D | D+40.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-21 | Kristin Hook (D) vs. Mark Teixeira (R) | R | R+11.1 | 89% R | Likely R |
| TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott (D) vs. Trever Nehls (R) | R | R+12.1 | 91% R | Likely R |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R) | R | R+3.9 | 67% R | Lean R |
| TX-24 | Kevin Burge (D) vs. Beth Van Duyne (R) | R | R+4.4 | 70% R | Lean R |
| TX-25 | Dione Sims (D) vs. Roger Williams (R) | R | R+14.5 | 95% R | Likely R |
| TX-26 | Steven Shook (D) vs. Brandon Gill (R) | R | R+16.3 | 97% R | Safe R |
| TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd (D) vs. Michael Cloud (R) | R | R+11.7 | 91% R | Likely R |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | D | R+0.4 | 52% R | Toss-upFlip |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia (D) vs. Martha Fierro (R) | D | D+43.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes (D) vs. Everett Jackson (R) | D | D+59.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-31 | Justin Early (D) vs. John Carter (R) | R | R+11.9 | 91% R | Likely R |
| TX-32 | Dan Barrios (D) vs. Jace Yarbrough (R) | D | R+7.2 | 79% R | Lean RFlip |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred (D) vs. Patrick Gillespie (R) | D | D+44.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R) | D | D+0.6 | 53% D | Toss-up |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | D | R+0.4 | 52% R | Toss-upFlip |
| TX-36 | Rhonda Hart (D) vs. Brian Babin (R) | R | R+15.0 | 95% R | Safe R |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar (D) vs. Lauren Peña (R) | D | D+68.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| TX-38 | Melissa McDonough (D) vs. Jon Bonck (R) | R | R+8.6 | 84% R | Likely R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.