2026 midterm forecast
Maine Senate
Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
85%
Troy Jackson
Projected margin
D+5.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
9%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Collins is at risk of losing her Maine seat to Jackson
Collins, the Republican incumbent, is running again, but Democrat Jackson is favored to take the seat. His lead is modest, and the race remains within reach for her.
Jackson's edge rests on younger voters and college graduates. He leads by 27.8 points among voters 30 to 44 and by 30.4 among college graduates, while voters without a degree are evenly split. Collins does best in urban areas, which she carries by 9.7 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Troy Jackson (D)
- Republican
- Susan Collins (R)
- Seat held by
- Susan Collins (R), running
- Note
- Ranked-choice general
Republican Sen. Susan Collins, in the Senate since 1997, is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger and former state Senate president who became the nominee after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew in July. Collins won her fifth term in 2020 by 8.6 points while Joe Biden carried Maine by 9. She points to her Appropriations chairmanship and a rural health fund she authored. Jackson backs Medicare for All and faults her vote advancing the 2025 GOP law that cut Medicaid, which she opposed on final passage.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.JacksonCollins
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.