2026 midterm forecast
Maine House
All 2 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
1 D · 1 R
of 2
Seats today
2 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+13.5
98% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 12% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats could lose Maine's 2nd District by a fraction of a point
Democrats hold both of Maine's House seats, but Republicans are favored in ME-02 by just 0.3 points. A flip there would split the delegation evenly, with ME-01 comfortably Democratic at 25.5 points.
Voters 30 to 44 are the most Democratic age group, at 35.2 points, while those 65 and older lean Democratic by 5.4. Education divides the vote more sharply, with college graduates favoring Democrats by 38.8 points and voters without a degree leaning Republican by 2.3.
The race
Maine elects 2 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-01 | Chellie Pingree (D) vs. Ronald Russell (R) | D | D+25.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| ME-02 | Matthew Dunlap (D) vs. Paul LePage (R) | D | R+0.3 | 52% R | Toss-upFlip |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.