2026 midterm forecast
Maine governor
Hannah Pingree (D) vs. Bobby Charles (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
98%
Hannah Pingree
Projected margin
D+11.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
7%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Charles wins Maine's cities but trails Pingree statewide
Mills is leaving the governor's office, and Pingree is well placed to keep it for Democrats against Republican Charles. Bennett is also running, as an independent.
Charles's best showing is in urban areas, where he leads by 21.9 points, while Pingree carries the suburbs and rural Maine. Her 38.5-point lead among college graduates is her widest, and Charles narrowly wins voters without a degree, by 4.1.
The race
- Democrat
- Hannah Pingree (D)
- Republican
- Bobby Charles (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Rick Bennett (I)
- Seat held by
- Janet Mills (D), not running
Democrat Hannah Pingree, a former House speaker, focuses on housing and energy efficiency in her run for the open seat. Republican Bobby Charles, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state, wants to cut energy costs and regulations. Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett, a former state GOP chair, presents himself as an alternative to both parties.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.PingreeCharles
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.