2026 midterms
Foresight vs. Silver Bulletin
Foresight and Silver Bulletin's FLIPR model both forecast every Senate, governor and House race on the November 3 ballot. We mostly agree. This post starts with control of Congress, then goes race by race to the places where we part ways.
Foresight: forecast published October 30, 2026. Silver Bulletin: FLIPR (Deluxe), November 2, 2026 update.
Control of Congress
Both forecasts make Democrats favorites to win the Senate and the House. Foresight puts Democratic control of the Senate at 74%, against 81% for Silver Bulletin, and control of the House at 93%, against 96%.
| Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate: Democratic control | 74% | 81% |
| Senate: expected seats | 51.9 D · 47.6 R · 0.5 I | 52.4 D · 47.2 R · 0.4 I |
| House: Democratic control | 93% | 96% |
| House: expected seats | 241 D · 193 R | 241 D · 194 R |
| National House vote | D+7.0 | D+7.8 |
| Governorships, by projected leader | 28 D · 22 R | 27 D · 23 R |
Where we pick different winners
We pick a different winner in 3 of 71 Senate and governor races, and in 20 of the 420 House districts whose outcome isn't already settled.
Every Senate race
Sorted by gap: Foresight's margin minus Silver Bulletin's, in points (D+3.0: Foresight is 3 points more Democratic).
| Race | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DelawareCoons (D) vs. Katz (R) | D+20.6 · >99% D | D+26.6 · >99% D | R+6.0 |
| IllinoisStratton (D) vs. Tracy (R) | D+14.6 · 99% D | D+20.3 · >99% D | R+5.7 |
| OregonMerkley (D) vs. Smith (R) | D+19.9 · >99% D | D+24.4 · >99% D | R+4.5 |
| West VirginiaAnderson (D) vs. Capito (R) | R+38.3 · >99% R | R+34.1 · >99% R | R+4.2 |
| WyomingByrd (D) vs. Hageman (R) | R+39.1 · >99% R | R+43.3 · >99% R | D+4.2 |
| KentuckyBooker (D) vs. Barr (R) | R+23.2 · >99% R | R+19.2 · >99% R | R+4.0 |
| IdahoAchilles (I) vs. Risch (R) | R+23.9 · >99% R | R+20.2 · >99% R | R+3.7 |
| New MexicoLuján (D) vs. Marker (R) | D+16.9 · >99% D | D+19.9 · >99% D | R+3.0 |
| GeorgiaOssoff (D) vs. Collins (R) | D+8.9 · 95% D | D+11.8 · 98% D | R+2.9 |
| KansasHamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) · different winners | R+0.8 · 55% R | D+2.1 · 65% D | R+2.9 |
| North CarolinaCooper (D) vs. Whatley (R) | D+12.9 · 99% D | D+10.1 · 97% D | D+2.8 |
| Rhode IslandReed (D) vs. McKay (R) | D+28.2 · >99% D | D+31.0 · >99% D | R+2.8 |
| IowaTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) · different winners | R+1.6 · 61% R | D+1.1 · 59% D | R+2.7 |
| MississippiColom (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) | R+12.0 · 97% R | R+9.3 · 96% R | R+2.7 |
| ColoradoHickenlooper (D) vs. Baisley (R) | D+23.2 · >99% D | D+20.6 · >99% D | D+2.6 |
| VirginiaWarner (D) vs. Mizusawa (R) | D+23.9 · >99% D | D+21.4 · >99% D | D+2.5 |
| South DakotaBengs (I) vs. Rounds (R) | R+17.0 · >99% R | R+14.9 · 99% R | R+2.1 |
| Florida (special)Nixon (D) vs. Moody (R) | R+7.2 · 90% R | R+5.2 · 83% R | R+2.0 |
| AlabamaWess (D) vs. Moore (R) | R+19.9 · >99% R | R+18.0 · >99% R | R+1.9 |
| MassachusettsMarkey (D) vs. Deaton (R) | D+32.4 · >99% D | D+30.6 · >99% D | D+1.8 |
| MaineJackson (D) vs. Collins (R) | D+5.8 · 85% D | D+4.1 · 78% D | D+1.7 |
| NebraskaOsborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R) | R+0.7 · 55% R | R+2.4 · 66% R | I+1.7 |
| TexasTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R) | D+2.4 · 67% D | D+3.8 · 77% D | R+1.4 |
| South CarolinaAndrews (D) vs. Graham (R) | R+3.6 · 74% R | R+2.4 · 67% R | R+1.2 |
| New JerseyBooker (D) vs. Murphy (R) | D+20.9 · >99% D | D+22.0 · >99% D | R+1.1 |
| LouisianaDavis (D) vs. Letlow (R) | R+7.0 · 85% R | R+7.9 · 90% R | D+0.9 |
| MinnesotaFlanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R) | D+7.6 · 91% D | D+8.3 · 93% D | R+0.7 |
| MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R) | D+6.3 · 87% D | D+5.8 · 86% D | D+0.5 |
| OklahomaThomas (D) vs. Hern (R) | R+28.1 · >99% R | R+27.6 · >99% R | R+0.5 |
| AlaskaPeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R) | D+2.3 · 66% D | D+2.6 · 58% D | R+0.3 |
| MontanaBodnar (I) vs. Alme (R) | R+9.7 · 96% R | R+10.0 · 94% R | I+0.3 |
| TennesseeBradshaw (D) vs. Hagerty (R) | R+24.2 · >99% R | R+23.9 · >99% R | R+0.3 |
| ArkansasShoffner (D) vs. Cotton (R) | R+18.5 · >99% R | R+18.3 · >99% R | R+0.2 |
| Ohio (special)Brown (D) vs. Husted (R) | D+2.8 · 69% D | D+3.0 · 72% D | R+0.2 |
| New HampshirePappas (D) vs. Sununu (R) | D+10.3 · 97% D | D+10.2 · 96% D | D+0.1 |
Every governor's race
Sorted by gap, as above.
| Race | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HawaiiGreen (D) vs. Cordery (R) | D+30.0 · >99% D | D+41.0 · >99% D | R+11.0 |
| OregonKotek (D) vs. Drazan (R) | D+13.4 · 99% D | D+6.7 · 85% D | D+6.7 |
| MarylandMoore (D) vs. Cox (R) | D+35.9 · >99% D | D+29.8 · >99% D | D+6.1 |
| IdahoPickens (D) vs. Little (R) | R+28.5 · >99% R | R+23.0 · >99% R | R+5.5 |
| OklahomaMunson (D) vs. Mazzei (R) | R+14.6 · 99% R | R+9.8 · 93% R | R+4.8 |
| MinnesotaKlobuchar (D) vs. Demuth (R) | D+10.9 · 98% D | D+15.4 · 99% D | R+4.5 |
| NebraskaWalz (D) vs. Pillen (R) | R+2.2 · 66% R | R+6.5 · 87% R | D+4.3 |
| MassachusettsHealey (D) vs. Minogue (R) | D+29.7 · >99% D | D+25.8 · >99% D | D+3.9 |
| VermontJanoo (D) vs. Scott (R) | R+4.4 · 77% R | R+0.9 · 56% R | R+3.5 |
| ColoradoWeiser (D) vs. Marx (R) | D+18.4 · >99% D | D+21.6 · >99% D | R+3.2 |
| New MexicoHaaland (D) vs. Hull (R) | D+11.3 · 97% D | D+14.4 · 98% D | R+3.1 |
| TennesseeGreen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) | R+16.6 · >99% R | R+13.7 · 99% R | R+2.9 |
| ConnecticutLamont (D) vs. Fazio (R) | D+21.6 · >99% D | D+19.2 · >99% D | D+2.4 |
| IowaSand (D) vs. Lahn (R) | D+5.7 · 85% D | D+8.1 · 93% D | R+2.4 |
| New YorkHochul (D) vs. Blakeman (R) | D+17.4 · >99% D | D+15.0 · 99% D | D+2.4 |
| IllinoisPritzker (D) vs. Bailey (R) | D+20.0 · >99% D | D+22.0 · >99% D | R+2.0 |
| TexasHinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R) | R+4.2 · 77% R | R+2.2 · 67% R | R+2.0 |
| South CarolinaJohnson (D) vs. Wilson (R) | R+9.9 · 96% R | R+11.8 · 98% R | D+1.9 |
| AlaskaKreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Wilson (R) | D+17.3 · >99% D | D+19.1 · 89% D | R+1.8 |
| MainePingree (D) vs. Charles (R) | D+11.7 · 98% D | D+13.4 · 99% D | R+1.7 |
| OhioActon (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R) | D+3.4 · 73% D | D+5.0 · 83% D | R+1.6 |
| AlabamaJones (D) vs. Tuberville (R) | R+12.2 · 98% R | R+10.7 · 97% R | R+1.5 |
| MichiganBenson (D) vs. James (R) | D+8.2 · 93% D | D+9.7 · 97% D | R+1.5 |
| ArizonaHobbs (D) vs. Biggs (R) | D+8.7 · 94% D | D+10.1 · 96% D | R+1.4 |
| WyomingCasner (D) vs. Barlow (R) | R+34.2 · >99% R | R+32.8 · >99% R | R+1.4 |
| ArkansasLove (D) vs. Huckabee Sanders (R) | R+22.6 · >99% R | R+21.6 · >99% R | R+1.0 |
| South DakotaAhlers (D) vs. Rhoden (R) | R+19.2 · >99% R | R+18.2 · >99% R | R+1.0 |
| NevadaFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R) · different winners | D+0.8 · 56% D | Even · 50% R | D+0.8 |
| GeorgiaLance Bottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R) | D+2.4 · 67% D | D+1.9 · 64% D | D+0.5 |
| KansasHolscher (D) vs. Masterson (R) | R+1.1 · 58% R | R+1.6 · 62% R | D+0.5 |
| Rhode IslandFoulkes (D) vs. Guckian (R) | D+34.4 · >99% D | D+33.9 · >99% D | D+0.5 |
| WisconsinCrowley (D) vs. Tiffany (R) | D+5.6 · 84% D | D+5.2 · 81% D | D+0.4 |
| CaliforniaBecerra (D) vs. Hilton (R) | D+23.0 · >99% D | D+23.3 · >99% D | R+0.3 |
| New HampshireWarmington (D) vs. Ayotte (R) | R+8.2 · 93% R | R+8.0 · 92% R | R+0.2 |
| FloridaJolly (D) vs. Donalds (R) | R+3.7 · 75% R | R+3.8 · 77% R | D+0.1 |
| PennsylvaniaShapiro (D) vs. Garrity (R) | D+22.8 · >99% D | D+22.9 · >99% D | R+0.1 |
House districts where we differ
The 20 House districts, of 420, where the two forecasts have different leaders.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Foresight | Silver Bulletin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-03 | Dwayne Romero (D) vs. Jeff Hurd (R) | R | D+2.1 · 60% D | R+3.2 · 72% R |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) | D | R+1.1 · 55% R | D+5.5 · 84% D |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | D | R+5.7 · 75% R | D+3.1 · 71% D |
| FL-25 | Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) | D | R+3.5 · 67% R | D+4.4 · 77% D |
| IA-01 | Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | R | R+3.7 · 67% R | D+5.4 · 81% D |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) | R | R+4.2 · 69% R | D+3.1 · 72% D |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) | R | R+7.6 · 82% R | D+0.6 · 54% D |
| MO-02 | Frederick Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R) | R | D+1.8 · 58% D | R+1.1 · 59% R |
| MT-01 | Samuel Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) | R | R+6.6 · 79% R | D+1.8 · 63% D |
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith (D) vs. Greg Murphy (R) | R | D+0.8 · 54% D | R+7.6 · 90% R |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack (D) vs. Tim Moore (R) | R | D+1.2 · 55% D | R+12.4 · 97% R |
| NE-01 | Christopher Backemeyer (D) vs. Mike Flood (R) | R | D+3.7 · 68% D | R+4.9 · 82% R |
| NY-03 | Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Michael LiPetri (R) | D | R+0.5 · 52% R | D+13.3 · 97% D |
| OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs. Mike Turner (R) | R | D+4.5 · 70% D | R+3.3 · 74% R |
| OH-15 | Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) | R | D+1.9 · 59% D | R+1.4 · 61% R |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | R | R+8.0 · 82% R | D+2.3 · 64% D |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | D | R+0.4 · 52% R | D+9.7 · 92% D |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | D | R+0.4 · 52% R | D+0.5 · 54% D |
| VA-05 | Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R) | R | D+3.8 · 67% D | R+5.1 · 84% R |
| WI-01 | Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R) | R | D+0.5 · 53% D | R+0.1 · 50% R |
Silver Bulletin figures: FLIPR forecast (Deluxe version), November 2, 2026 update, from its Senate, House and governors forecasts. Margins are projected vote shares, the left-hand candidate minus the right-hand one. Foresight figures: our forecast published October 30, 2026; see the method and the full forecast.