2026 midterm forecast
Oklahoma Senate
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Kevin Hern
Projected margin
R+28.1
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
19%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hern is all but certain to hold Oklahoma's open Senate seat
Hern, a Republican, is the overwhelming favorite over Thomas, a Democrat, to succeed Sen. Armstrong, a Republican who is not running.
Hern's strength is in rural areas, where he leads by 55.9 points, and among men, whom he carries by 47.0. Thomas is ahead with urban voters, by 19.5 points, and with college graduates, by 8.5.
The race
- Democrat
- N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D)
- Republican
- Kevin Hern (R)
- Seat held by
- Alan Armstrong (R), not running
- Note
- Appointee Armstrong (Mullin went to DHS) isn't running
The seat opened when Markwayne Mullin resigned in March to become Homeland Security secretary. Republican Rep. Kevin Hern is campaigning on extending tax cuts, border security, school choice and a balanced-budget amendment. Democrat N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse in her first race, puts health care access, the nursing shortage, reproductive rights and tribal sovereignty at the center of her campaign.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ThomasHern
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.