2026 midterm forecast
Oklahoma governor
Cyndi Munson (D) vs. Mike Mazzei (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
99%
Mike Mazzei
Projected margin
R+14.6
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
18%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Mazzei is a heavy favorite to succeed Stitt in Oklahoma
Stitt, the Republican governor, is not running. Mazzei, also a Republican, leads Munson, a Democrat, by a wide margin and is expected to keep the office for his party.
The gender gap is wide. Mazzei leads men by 47.5 points but women by only 6.8. Munson does best in urban areas, which she carries by 21.4 points, and among college graduates, whom she leads by 12.0.
The race
- Democrat
- Cyndi Munson (D)
- Republican
- Mike Mazzei (R)
- Seat held by
- Kevin Stitt (R), not running
The seat is open because Gov. Kevin Stitt is term-limited. Republican Mike Mazzei, a Tulsa financial planner and former state senator who chaired the Senate Finance Committee and was Stitt's budget secretary, won the nomination with President Trump's endorsement. He wants to eliminate the income tax and property taxes on seniors' and veterans' homes. Democrat Cyndi Munson, the state House minority leader, has built her campaign around public school funding, teacher pay and ending the private-school tax credit.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.MunsonMazzei
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.