2026 midterm forecast

Oklahoma

Three races on Oklahoma's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 5 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Oklahoma Senate

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Hern

Projected margin

R+28.1

Hern is all but certain to hold Oklahoma's open Senate seat

Cyndi Munson (D) vs. Mike Mazzei (R)

Chance to win

99%

Mazzei

Projected margin

R+14.6

Mazzei is a heavy favorite to succeed Stitt in Oklahoma

All 5 House seats

Expected seats

0 D · 5 R

Statewide House vote

R+28.8

Oklahoma's House delegation is expected to stay all Republican