2026 midterm forecast
Oklahoma House
All 5 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
0 D · 5 R
of 5
Seats today
0 D · 5 R
Statewide House vote
R+28.8
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 20% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Oklahoma's House delegation is expected to stay all Republican
Every one of Oklahoma's five House seats is in Republican hands, and all are expected to stay there. OK-05 is the most competitive, with Republicans up 7.9 points, followed by OK-01 at 15.3 and OK-04 at 25.8.
Area and education produce the largest gaps. Rural voters back Republicans by 57.2 points, and voters without a degree by 47.9. Democrats lead only among urban voters, by 19.3, and college graduates, by 8.3.
The race
Oklahoma elects 5 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 5 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | John Croisant (D) vs. Mark Tedford (R) | R | R+15.3 | 96% R | Safe R |
| OK-02 | Brandon Wade (D) vs. Josh Brecheen (R) | R | R+53.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| OK-03 | Suzie Byrd (D) vs. Frank Lucas (R) | R | R+43.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| OK-04 | Mitchell Jacob (D) vs. Tom Cole (R) | R | R+25.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| OK-05 | Jena Nelson (D) vs. Stephanie Bice (R) | R | R+7.9 | 83% R | Likely R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.