2026 midterm forecast
Kentucky House
All 6 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
1 D · 5 R
of 6
Seats today
1 D · 5 R
Statewide House vote
R+24.1
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 21% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
KY-06 is the only Kentucky House seat anywhere near competitive
Kentucky's delegation of five Republicans and one Democrat is expected to come through the election unchanged. KY-06 leans Republican by 7.6 points, and no other district is closer than 26.8.
Age shapes the Republican margin. Voters under 30 lean Republican by just 3.5 points, compared with 34.3 among those 45 to 64. Democrats carry urban voters by 29.4 points.
The race
Kentucky elects 6 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 1 Democrat and 5 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-01 | Drew Williams (D) vs. James Comer (R) | R | R+38.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
| KY-02 | Megan Wingfield (D) vs. Brett Guthrie (R) | R | R+37.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey (D) vs. Maria Teresa Rodriguez (R) | D | D+26.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| KY-04 | Melissa Strange (D) vs. Ed Gallrein (R) | R | R+29.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
| KY-05 | Ned Pillersdorf (D) vs. Hal Rogers (R) | R | R+57.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) | R | R+7.6 | 82% R | Likely R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.