2026 midterm forecast
Kentucky Senate
Charles Booker (D) vs. Andy Barr (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Andy Barr
Projected margin
R+23.2
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
20%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Barr is the clear favorite to succeed McConnell in Kentucky
McConnell is not seeking another term, and Barr is in a strong position to keep the seat in Republican hands. Booker, the Democrat, trails by a wide margin.
Booker's strength is in cities, where he leads by 34.9 points, and among college graduates, who favor him by 11.6. Barr counters with a 50.4-point lead in rural areas, and voters under 30 are split almost evenly.
The race
- Democrat
- Charles Booker (D)
- Republican
- Andy Barr (R)
- Seat held by
- Mitch McConnell (R), not running
Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are vying for the open seat of Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is retiring. Barr, endorsed by Trump, talks about lowering costs through limited government, expanded energy production including coal, and support for agriculture. Booker, a former Louisville state representative, is focused on fighting poverty, health care as a human right, union jobs and lower grocery and gas prices. They debated once, on Oct. 19.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BookerBarr
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.