2026 midterm forecast
South Carolina Senate
Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
74%
Darline Graham
Projected margin
R+3.6
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
17%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Graham's narrow edge keeps South Carolina's Senate race in play
Andrews, the Democrat, is within reach of Graham, the Republican incumbent, who is seeking another term. Graham is still the favorite to hold the seat.
Andrews wins college graduates by 21.6 points and urban voters by 9.7. Graham counters with a 17.9-point lead among voters without a degree and a 12.6-point lead among men.
The race
- Democrat
- Annie Andrews (D)
- Republican
- Darline Graham (R)
- Seat held by
- Darline Graham (R), running
- Note
- Appointed after Lindsey Graham's death in July
Republican Sen. Darline Graham, the state's former commissioner for the blind, was appointed after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died July 11. She faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician. Darline Graham has stressed the 2025 GOP tax law, competition with China on artificial intelligence and her opposition to abortion. Andrews opposes the Iran war, backs a public insurance option and wants to protect Social Security.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.AndrewsGraham
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.