2026 midterm forecast
South Carolina governor
Jermaine Johnson (D) vs. Alan Wilson (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
96%
Alan Wilson
Projected margin
R+9.9
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Wilson is favored to hold South Carolina's open governorship for Republicans
McMaster, a Republican, is not running, and Wilson is in a strong position to succeed him. Johnson, the Democrat, trails but leads with several groups of voters.
Education is the sharpest divide. Johnson wins college graduates by 15.6 points, while Wilson carries voters without a degree by 18.7. Men favor Wilson by 15.8 points, and women lean slightly toward Johnson.
The race
- Democrat
- Jermaine Johnson (D)
- Republican
- Alan Wilson (R)
- Seat held by
- Henry McMaster (R), not running
Republican Attorney General Alan Wilson and Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson are competing for the open seat of term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster. Wilson is calling for phasing out the income tax, capping spending growth and auditing the transportation department. Johnson wants to repeal this year's income tax law, which he says raised taxes on low earners, and backs a data-center moratorium.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.JohnsonWilson
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.