2026 midterm forecast
South Carolina House
All 7 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
2 D · 5 R
of 7
Seats today
1 D · 6 R
Statewide House vote
R+7.7
88% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans narrowly lead in SC-02, South Carolina's closest House race
Republicans hold six of South Carolina's seven seats, and the expected split is five Republicans to two Democrats, though no single district is projected to flip. SC-02 is nearly even, with Republicans ahead by 0.2 points, and SC-01 is next at 3.2.
Voters split sharply by education, with college graduates backing Democrats by 19.7 points and those without a degree backing Republicans by 19.2. Rural areas favor Republicans by 9.7 points, and cities lean Democratic by 7.9.
The race
South Carolina elects 7 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 1 Democrat and 6 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC-01 | Nancy Lacore (D) vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) | R | R+3.2 | 65% R | Lean R |
| SC-02 | Zyon Khalifa (D) vs. Joe Wilson (R) | R | R+0.2 | 51% R | Toss-up |
| SC-03 | Eunice Lehmacher (D) vs. Sheri Biggs (R) | R | R+36.3 | >99% R | Safe R |
| SC-04 | Courtney McClain (D) vs. William Timmons (R) | R | R+11.8 | 92% R | Likely R |
| SC-05 | Mallory Dittmer (D) vs. Wes Climer (R) | R | R+16.1 | 97% R | Safe R |
| SC-06 | James Clyburn (D) vs. John Peterson (R) | D | D+36.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| SC-07 | John Vincent (D) vs. Russell Fry (R) | R | R+15.7 | 97% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.