2026 midterm forecast
California governor
Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Xavier Becerra
Projected margin
D+23.0
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
17%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Becerra holds a 23-point lead in the race to replace Newsom
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is not running, and Becerra is the overwhelming favorite to keep the office for his party. Hilton, the Republican, trails in every group.
Becerra's weakest spot is the youngest voters. He leads voters 18 to 29 by just 2.0 points, compared with 37.9 among those 65 and older. Rural voters are also close, at 4.9.
The race
- Democrat
- Xavier Becerra (D)
- Republican
- Steve Hilton (R)
- Seat held by
- Gavin Newsom (D), not running
- Note
- Top-two general
Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited, so the seat is open. Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former U.S. health secretary and state attorney general, opposes Trump administration policies and is running on housing construction, down-payment aid and lower health and utility costs. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, proposes ending state income tax on the first $150,000 of income and calls for lower gas and utility costs and deregulation. Becerra and Hilton held one televised debate, on Sept. 30.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BecerraHilton
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.