2026 midterm forecast
California House
All 52 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
47 D · 5 R
of 52
Seats today
44 D · 8 R
Statewide House vote
D+26.7
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats eye four Republican seats under California's new map
Under the state's new map, Democrats lead in four Republican-held districts, CA-01, CA-22, CA-41 and CA-48. Some of those races are close, so their expected gain is three seats, from 44 to 47 of California's 52. CA-22 is the tightest, with a 2.7-point Democratic lead.
Democrats lead urban voters by 43.5 points but rural voters by only 4.9. Education divides voters too, with college graduates favoring Democrats by 47.0 points and voters without a degree by 14.8.
The race
California elects 52 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 44 Democrats and 8 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | Mike McGuire (D) vs. James Gallagher (R) | R | D+15.8 | 96% D | Safe DFlip |
| CA-02 | Jared Huffman (D) vs. Robin Littau (R) | D | D+29.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-03 | Ami Bera (D) vs. Robb Tucker (R) | D | D+15.8 | 97% D | Safe D |
| CA-04 | Mike Thompson (D) vs. Eric Jones (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-05 | Michael Masuda (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R) | R | R+16.2 | 97% R | Safe R |
| CA-06 | Richard Pan (D) vs. Kiley (I) | D | D+14.3 | 95% D | Safe D |
| CA-07 | Mai Vang (D) vs. Doris Matsui (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-08 | John Garamendi (D) vs. Rudy Recile (R) | D | D+41.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-09 | Josh Harder (D) vs. John McBride (R) | D | D+20.1 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier (D) vs. Jeffrey Frese (R) | D | D+41.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-11 | Scott Wiener (D) vs. Connie Chan (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-12 | Lateefah Simon (D) vs. Jamie Joyce (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R) | D | D+4.5 | 69% D | Lean D |
| CA-14 | Aisha Wahab (D) vs. Melissa Hernandez (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin (D) vs. Charles Hoelter (R) | D | D+55.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo (D) vs. Peter Soule (R) | D | D+54.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna (D) vs. Ritesh Tandon (R) | D | D+45.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren (D) vs. Shane Lewis (R) | D | D+36.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta (D) vs. Peter Verbica (R) | D | D+41.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-20 | Sandra Van Scotter (D) vs. Vince Fong (R) | R | R+28.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa (D) vs. Kyle Kirkland (R) | D | D+13.1 | 93% D | Likely D |
| CA-22 | Randy Villegas (D) vs. David G. Valadao (R) | R | D+2.7 | 62% D | Lean DFlip |
| CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) vs. Jay Obernolte (R) | R | R+13.8 | 95% R | Likely R |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal (D) vs. Bob Smith (R) | D | D+31.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz (D) vs. Joe Males (R) | D | D+10.8 | 89% D | Likely D |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin (D) vs. Samuel Gallucci (R) | D | D+21.8 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides (D) vs. Jason Gibbs (R) | D | D+18.1 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu (D) vs. April Verlato (R) | D | D+34.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-29 | Luz Maria Rivas (D) vs. Angélica María Dueñas (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman (D) vs. Scott Meyers (R) | D | D+49.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros (D) vs. Eric Ching (R) | D | D+20.7 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman (D) vs. Larry Thompson (R) | D | D+33.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar (D) vs. Stephanie Vargas (R) | D | D+16.2 | 97% D | Safe D |
| CA-34 | Jimmy Gomez (D) vs. Angela Gonzales-Torres (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres (D) vs. Mike Cargile (R) | D | D+14.7 | 96% D | Safe D |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu (D) vs. Houston Brignano (R) | D | D+48.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-37 | Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D) vs. Samantha Mota (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis (D) vs. Pedro Casas (R) | D | D+24.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano (D) vs. Steve Manos (R) | D | D+16.2 | 97% D | Safe D |
| CA-40 | Young Kim (R) vs. Ken Calvert (R) | R | Decided (R) | — | Decided |
| CA-41 | Linda T. Sánchez (D) vs. Mitch Clemmons (R) | R | D+25.8 | >99% D | Safe DFlip |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia (D) vs. Brian Burley (R) | D | D+27.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters (D) vs. Cristian Morales (R) | D | D+58.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán (D) vs. Genevieve Angel (R) | D | D+44.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran (D) vs. Chuong Vo (R) | D | D+17.1 | 98% D | Safe D |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa (D) vs. David Pan (R) | D | D+28.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-47 | Dave Min (D) vs. Jenny Rae Le Roux (R) | D | D+22.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert (D) vs. Jim Desmond (R) | R | D+9.4 | 87% D | Likely DFlip |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin (D) vs. Armen Kurdian (R) | D | D+19.4 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters (D) vs. Steve Cohen (R) | D | D+24.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs (D) vs. Ricardo Cabrera (R) | D | D+24.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CA-52 | Juan C. Vargas (D) vs. Jeff Belle (R) | D | D+23.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.