2026 midterm forecast
Florida House
All 28 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
8 D · 20 R
of 28
Seats today
8 D · 20 R
Statewide House vote
R+6.1
83% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 14% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Four Democratic-held Florida House seats now lean Republican
Florida has 28 House seats and new district lines for 2026. Republicans are favored to flip four seats Democrats hold today, FL-09, FL-14, FL-22 and FL-25. FL-14 is the closest race in the state, with Republicans up by just 1.1 points.
The suburbs lean Republican by 4.8 points, while cities favor Democrats by 7.7. Voters without a degree back Republicans by 11.8, a wider margin than the 8.5 Democrats get from college graduates.
The race
Florida elects 28 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 8 Democrats and 20 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | Gay Valimont (D) vs. Jimmy Patronis (R) | R | R+31.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| FL-02 | Amanda Green (D) vs. Austin Rogers (R) | R | R+9.1 | 85% R | Likely R |
| FL-03 | Seth Harp (D) vs. Kat Cammack (R) | R | R+15.2 | 96% R | Safe R |
| FL-04 | LaShonda L.J. Holloway (D) vs. Aaron Bean (R) | R | R+3.0 | 63% R | Lean R |
| FL-05 | Rachel Grage (D) vs. John Rutherford (R) | R | R+13.6 | 94% R | Likely R |
| FL-06 | Eric Yonce (D) vs. Randy Fine (R) | R | R+24.5 | >99% R | Safe R |
| FL-07 | Bale Dalton (D) vs. Ryan Elijah (R) | R | R+6.1 | 76% R | Lean R |
| FL-08 | Jennifer Jenkins (D) vs. Mike Haridopolos (R) | R | R+10.3 | 88% R | Likely R |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto (D) vs. Dan Green (R) | D | R+9.7 | 87% R | Likely RFlip |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Alejandro Frost (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| FL-11 | James Pericola (D) vs. Joe Strada (R) | R | R+7.7 | 81% R | Likely R |
| FL-12 | Kimberly Overman (D) vs. Gus M. Bilirakis (R) | R | R+7.9 | 82% R | Likely R |
| FL-13 | Leela Gray (D) vs. Anna Paulina Luna (R) | R | R+5.5 | 74% R | Lean R |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) | D | R+1.1 | 55% R | Toss-upFlip |
| FL-15 | Robert People (D) vs. Laurel Lee (R) | R | R+13.2 | 94% R | Likely R |
| FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner (D) vs. Sydney Gruters (R) | R | R+8.3 | 83% R | Likely R |
| FL-17 | Matthew Montavon (D) vs. Greg Steube (R) | R | R+16.2 | 97% R | Safe R |
| FL-18 | Curtis Gibson (D) vs. Scott Franklin (R) | R | R+10.0 | 88% R | Likely R |
| FL-19 | Victor Arias (D) vs. Jim Schwartzel (R) | R | R+24.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs. Brent Andersen (R) | D | D+42.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| FL-21 | James Martin (D) vs. Brian Mast (R) | R | R+9.4 | 86% R | Likely R |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | D | R+5.7 | 75% R | Lean RFlip |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel (D) vs. Deborah Adeimy (R) | D | D+20.7 | 99% D | Safe D |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert (D) vs. Te Brown (R) | D | D+46.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| FL-25 | Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) | D | R+3.5 | 67% R | Lean RFlip |
| FL-26 | Nicole Locklin (D) vs. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | R | R+11.8 | 92% R | Likely R |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | R | R+5.4 | 73% R | Lean R |
| FL-28 | Phil Ehr (D) vs. Carlos Giménez (R) | R | R+17.6 | 98% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.