2026 midterm forecast
Florida governor
David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
75%
Byron Donalds
Projected margin
R+3.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
11%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Donalds has the edge in a close race for Florida governor
The race to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican who is not running, is within reach for both parties. Donalds, also a Republican, is slightly ahead of Democrat Jolly.
The youngest and oldest voters pull in opposite directions. Jolly leads voters 18 to 29 by 41.3 points, while Donalds carries those 65 and older by 12.4 and wins rural areas by 34.9.
The race
- Democrat
- David Jolly (D)
- Republican
- Byron Donalds (R)
- Seat held by
- Ron DeSantis (R), not running
The governor's seat is open. Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has pledged to build on Gov. Ron DeSantis' policies and backs Amendment 3, a larger homestead property-tax exemption. Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, opposes Amendment 3 and has campaigned on housing, health care, education and a state-run hurricane insurance fund. Jolly declined to debate.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.JollyDonalds
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.