2026 midterm forecast
Florida Senate special election
Angie Nixon (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
90%
Ashley Moody
Projected margin
R+7.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Florida's Senate special election tilts toward Moody, the incumbent
Moody, the Republican who holds the seat, is running to keep it in the special election and has a solid lead over Democrat Nixon.
Rural voters give Moody a 41.4-point lead, the widest of any group. Nixon's best group is the youngest voters, who back her by 40.5 points, and she has a narrow edge in cities, at 6.4.
The race
- Democrat
- Angie Nixon (D)
- Republican
- Ashley Moody (R)
- Seat held by
- Ashley Moody (R), running
The special election will decide who finishes Marco Rubio's term. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, a former state attorney general appointed in 2025, has declined debate invitations and is running on law enforcement and backing Trump's agenda. Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who defeated Alex Vindman in the Aug. 18 primary, backs Medicare for All, free child care and a rent freeze.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.NixonMoody
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.