2026 midterm forecast

Florida

Three races on Florida's November 3 ballot: a Senate special election, the governor and all 28 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Florida Senate special election

Angie Nixon (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R)

Chance to win

90%

Moody

Projected margin

R+7.2

Florida's Senate special election tilts toward Moody, the incumbent

David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds (R)

Chance to win

75%

Donalds

Projected margin

R+3.7

Donalds has the edge in a close race for Florida governor

All 28 House seats

Expected seats

8 D · 20 R

Statewide House vote

R+6.1

Four Democratic-held Florida House seats now lean Republican