2026 midterm forecast
Arkansas Senate
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Tom Cotton
Projected margin
R+18.6
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
23%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Cotton is a heavy favorite for another term in Arkansas
Cotton, the Republican incumbent, is on the ballot again and has a wide lead over Democrat Shoffner. There is little sign the seat will change hands.
The closest any group comes to Shoffner is college graduates, who still favor Cotton by 6.9 points. Suburban voters are almost as close, at 7.2. Voters 45 to 64 back him by 31.2, and rural voters by 35.9.
The race
- Democrat
- Hallie Shoffner (D)
- Republican
- Tom Cotton (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Jeff Wadlin (Libertarian)
- Seat held by
- Tom Cotton (R), running
Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer and first-time candidate, and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin are running against Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, who is seeking a third term. Cotton's campaign centers on tax cuts, the military, law enforcement and border security. Shoffner talks about farm policy, rural hospitals and living costs and wants to end the Iran war.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ShoffnerCotton
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.