2026 midterm forecast
Arkansas governor
Fredrick Love (D) vs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Projected margin
R+22.6
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
22%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Huckabee Sanders is on a clear path to reelection in Arkansas
Arkansas' Republican governor, Huckabee Sanders, is running again and holds a commanding lead over Democrat Love. A sizable share of voters has yet to pick a candidate.
Her edge is smallest in the suburbs and among college graduates, 7.1 points in each, and largest in rural areas, where she leads by 36.5. She also holds 95% of Trump voters, while Love has 98% of Harris voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Fredrick Love (D)
- Republican
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Colt Shelby (Libertarian)
- Seat held by
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), running
Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders faces Democratic state Sen. Fredrick "Fred" Love and Libertarian Colt Shelby in her bid for a second term. Sanders is running on tax cuts, school choice and Medicaid work requirements. Love promises to end school vouchers, suspend the fuel tax and halt new data centers. Shelby has criticized the LEARNS education law.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.LoveHuckabee Sanders
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.