2026 midterm forecast
Arkansas House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
0 D · 4 R
of 4
Seats today
0 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
R+24.5
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 23% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Arkansas Republicans are poised to keep all four House seats
Republicans hold all four of Arkansas' House seats, and none is projected to flip. AR-02 is the least lopsided, and they still lead there by 11.8 points.
The party carries every group, though its margin among college graduates, 7.8 points, is far below its 29.4-point lead among voters without a degree. Suburban voters are also closer, at 9.0.
The race
Arkansas elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 4 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-01 | Terri Yarbrough Green (D) vs. Rick Crawford (R) | R | R+35.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AR-02 | Chris Jones (D) vs. French Hill (R) | R | R+11.8 | 92% R | Likely R |
| AR-03 | Robb Ryerse (D) vs. Steve Womack (R) | R | R+21.1 | 99% R | Safe R |
| AR-04 | James Russell (D) vs. Bruce Westerman (R) | R | R+33.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.