2026 midterm forecast

Arkansas

Three races on Arkansas's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 4 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Arkansas Senate

Hallie Shoffner (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Cotton

Projected margin

R+18.6

Cotton is a heavy favorite for another term in Arkansas

Fredrick Love (D) vs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Huckabee Sanders

Projected margin

R+22.6

Huckabee Sanders is on a clear path to reelection in Arkansas

All 4 House seats

Expected seats

0 D · 4 R

Statewide House vote

R+24.5

Arkansas Republicans are poised to keep all four House seats