2026 midterm forecast
Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
87%
Abdul El-Sayed
Projected margin
D+6.3
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
El-Sayed holds the edge for Michigan's open Senate seat
Peters is leaving the Senate, and El-Sayed has the inside track to hold the seat for Democrats, though Republican Rogers is close enough to make a race of it.
Age opens a wide gap. Voters under 30 back El-Sayed by 38.1 points, compared with 5.1 among those 65 and older. Rogers wins voters without a degree and rural voters, but only by 3.5 and 1.2 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- Republican
- Mike Rogers (R)
- Seat held by
- Gary Peters (D), not running
This is an open-seat race. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health official, narrowly defeated U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the Aug. 4 primary, while Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, was unopposed. El-Sayed is running on health care and living costs and ties Rogers to Trump. Rogers has campaigned on border security and says El-Sayed's Medicare for All plan would raise taxes.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.El-SayedRogers
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.