2026 midterm forecast
Michigan
Three races on Michigan's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 13 House seats.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
Chance to win
87%
El-Sayed
Projected margin
D+6.3
El-Sayed holds the edge for Michigan's open Senate seat
Read the forecastMichigan governor
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R)
Chance to win
93%
Benson
Projected margin
D+8.2
Michigan's open governor's race tilts toward Benson
Read the forecastMichigan House
All 13 House seats
Expected seats
8 D · 5 R
Statewide House vote
D+9.8
Democrats are on track to flip three Michigan House seats
Read the forecast